A great number of punters are only sports fans in the beginning and after a while they start betting to make the game more thrilling. What could be more interesting than putting some money on a game’s outcome? If you win a couple of times and earn a decent profit, you might consider wagering for a living. But the tricky part is that successful betting is not related to luck only, knowledge is involved, too.
It is not easy to understand everything you need to know about wagering on your own. There is plenty of information you can benefit from in order to become a successful punter and generate decent profits. The most professional tips you can get are those provided by expert punters. If you want to know the advanced bettors’ secrets of success, you should keep on reading.
Every bettor has techniques upon which they rely. The sports betting strategy is a way to generate good profits in your betting account.
However, there isn’t a single strategy that always guarantees success. You must keep in mind betting techniques only increase your chances of winning and nothing more. After all, it is a wager, nothing is guaranteed – you either win or lose.
In order to take full advantage of a certain strategy, you need discipline. Every technique has its own rules, which must be followed. A strategy will be successful only if you stick to the rules. But people experience difficulties in keeping things one way because when instinct kicks in, discipline is gone and you will most likely be disappointed by the results.
Here are a few good strategies, which you can use to become more successful, but remember that you must systematically follow the rules. The best advice is to examine various techniques and see which one suits you the most.
Betting against the Public
Betting Against the Public, or Fading the Public, is one of the simplest techniques to maximise the value of betting markets. The method is simple: you always wager against the public, i.e. you must not bet on the public’s favourite but on the underdog. Why should you use it? The answer to that question is based on the psychology of the masses. It is in one’s nature to back up the winners. So sportsbooks, based on media, which over-hypes the favourite teams, adjust the lines accordingly. What they do is exploit punters by giving both the favorites and the underdogs equal advantage.
Every time you wager on underdogs, your chances of winning will increase with 1-3%. Bookmakers update the percentage data of betting, so check for the renewed reports at the beginning of every season.
Major Line Moves
Major Line Moves are drastic and sudden overloads of cash, placed through the entire sports betting markets. Some of the most famous names in the betting industry do that: they would bet £50k on a home team, which will cause a reaction on the market; once this happens, they would place a £150k bet on the team they wanted in the first place and would usually get a 1.5 – 2 points move in their favour. It is a good strategy because it can rapidly increase your winnings, but if you follow it blindly, you can go broke, too.
Best Lines Shopping
One of the first bits of advice you will get is to open accounts at several online bookmakers, which will give you the opportunity to look for the best lines. Different games have different lines at the betting websites. You may find better lines, which will help you generate bigger profits. For example, let’s look at the following game: Orlando Magic are -2 against the New York Knicks at one online bookmaker, but after looking at other betting platforms, you find the odds are -3 for the same game. If you want to back up the Magic, you should wager at the first website, but if you are in favour of the Knicks, the second website is where you should place your bet.
Units Won Significance
The Betting Units Won are very important when you evaluate the handicapper’s worth or the betting system. The Units Won represent the sum of money that a couple of plays lost or won after factoring in the juice. In order to determine the units, you must use the following formula: if X (odds) > 0 use, it will be X/100 and if X (odds) < 0 use, it will be -100/X. North Carolina have a three points advantage over Duke at -115 juice, therefore, the formula would look like this: -100/-115 = 0.87. So you would win +0.87 units for the game, but if North Carolina fails to win, you would lose 1 unit. For example, If you bet $50 on NFL this season at 6.8 units, you would end up winning £340 [6.8 (units) X £50 = ££340].
The Fixed Wager is a perfect strategy for punters who hope to master a good betting technique that will work in the long run. The idea of the system is to bet one and the same amount of money every time. You should wager 1% to 5% of your total bankroll size. The strategy is a good one, because you spend smaller amounts of money from your betting account and thus, no major losses are generated. The risks you take are minimal. The disadvantage is that you must change the ratio frequently, depending on your bankroll. If you’re successful, you may afford to bet a higher percentage of money, but no more than the maximum 5%. If you lose, you must place smaller bets.
Proportional Betting is similar to Fixed Betting as punters must wager a sum ranging from 1% to 5% of their bankroll size. But the difference is that there is a link between the games and the size of your bets, so every bet is different. It is a good strategy because wagering remains flexible and at the same time you have a limit. You can place bigger or smaller bets, depending on your bankroll size. You must not forget that you should wager no more than 5% (per bet) of the overall sum you have allotted for betting.
The Martingale is considered a good strategy by many punters. On the other hand, the strategy puts many bettors in unpleasant situations and professionals do not recommend using the Martingale strategy if you’re inexperienced.
Basically, if you choose to follow this principle, you need to double the bet every time you lose in order to make up for the previous losses. You must place bets at odds of at least 2.00. It sounds good in theory, but in practice, it may lead to greater losses. If the bets you place, end up in long series of losses, you could waste a lot of money.
The Fibonacci Sequence has many applications. The technique is used by many punters to allocate their finances in sports betting. It is based on the conception of betting on a draw and if you lose the first bet, you need to bet again and again until you win. There are two rules that you must follow: bet only on a draw where the probability is over 2.618 and increase your bets’ size following the Fibonacci sequence 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34 and etc. As long as you increase the stake, your winnings will override the losses sooner or later.
For example, let’s start with a £1 bet. So if you lose the first bet, the second one should be £2. Losing again will mean that you need to place a third bet of £3, the next bet must be £5 and so on. If your fifth wager wins, you need to go two steps back and wager £3.
The system is very easy to follow and is preferred by many players. The strategy has its ups and downs, but it is better to use it than to bet on random numbers. The disadvantage of the technique is that it can result in series of losing bets.
Expert bettors advise everyone to place value bets. A bet has value if you think the odds are set at levels which outweigh the risk. You need to calculate the chances of winning of the prediction you have made, after that, you must find the best price in decimals and multiply the percentage of probability against the betting odds. If the result is higher than 1.00 this means that you have a value bet.
For example, if you think that Barcelona has a 50% chance to win and the odds are greater than 2.00 (2.00 x 50% = 1.00) and you can place your bet and hope for the best results. You must remember that value bets are not a sure recipe for success. They only increase your chances of winning.
The Kelly Criterion
The Kelly Criterion is a technique that helps you do better in the long run. The formula is S = (K / P – 1) / (K – 1), where S stands for the optimal amount of money from the bankroll, K denotes the odds offered by the bookie, while P represents the punter’s odds prediction.
For example, the formula looks like that (3.00/2.00 – 1) / (3.00 – 1) = 0.25 or 25%. But this is a big percentage of your bankroll and it is not advisable to bet so much. So you need to continue calculating, but this time, you should use the so-called Kelly divider. Choose a number from 4 to 10 and divide it by the result from the formula: 0.25 / 5 = 0.05, meaning that you need to wager 5% of your bankroll. This will help you avoid big betting units and reduce your losses.
Bet everything is the strategy of most non-professional punters. People who use this technique are also called sports gamblers. If you compare it with other strategies, it may prove to be the least profitable option. Of course, if you’re lucky you can win big, but there’s a good chance to lose too – you would be finished if your bets are bad. Even though it is not the best choice for a strategy, many punters use it.
Tips from Professionals
You can always learn from those who have more experience than you do. Here are a couple of tips from expert bettors, which will shorten the path of successful betting.
When a punter wants to place a bet on a football team, they focus on positions like the running back, quarterback and wide receivers. But professional punters know that teams with the best defensive and offensive lines are the winning ones. Defensive lines affect the opposing team directly, while the offensive lines break or make quarterbacks. If a team’s offensive line is poor, a running back would not be negated. If you start tracking the performance of those lines, you will place better bets and collect greater profits. The advice is suitable for NCAA and NFL games.
The next tactic is not to forget the advantage of the home field. Everyone knows that teams playing at their home fields are often more successful than the visiting teams. Bookmakers incorporate this understanding into the betting lines. In order to benefit from this, you need to study the players and the teams and understand how bookies set the lines. It would be easier to take advantage of their mistakes.
Another thing to take into account is the distance that teams travel in order to play. If a team has a long-distance travel, they may not play as well as they normally do. The sooner you start tracking it, the more opportunities you will have.
You need to look for the best value bets. Of course, finding a value bet is not equal to guaranteed success, but in the long run, it helps.
You need to focus on how much money you win, not on how many outcomes you predict correctly. For example, if you place bets at 4 games on 3 favourites and one underdog that pays £1.200 for a wager of £100. One line will give you £870 profit and the three spreads – only £200. You need to see the big picture.
You need to work very hard in order to become a successful punter or you will lose more often. Luck will come around once or twice, but if you want to be winning more often than you’re losing, you need to study the strategies and apply the experts’ tips. Success does not come easily but requires hard work. You must do whatever it takes. Find your winning system, explore new ones, search for better lines, study the teams and the players and you will become successful.
The most common vig that you pay to place bets at sportsbooks is 10%. The only time you lose it is when your bet loses. So if you place an 11/10 bet and you lose, the bookie keeps the whole amount that you wager and the vig. On the other hand, when you win, you will get the winnings, including the vig. But you win 10% less. This is actually the way that bookmakers guarantee their profits – if two players place a bet of £110 in order to win £100, the sportsbook has a guaranteed profit of £10 from each player. The bookmaker pays winning punters with other bettors’ money. In order to break even when you pay a 10% vig, you need to win 52.3% of the time. If you place £105, you must win 51.2% of the bets you’ve placed. One percent can be life-changing.
For example, if you spend one million pounds per year on bets and win 52.3 % of the time, you will break even. But if a punter maintains the exact same percentage of winnings and pays £105 to win £100, their profit would be £22,150 per year. So your first job when you start betting is to learn how to place more winning bets and find a bookmaker with reduced vig.