Travis Kelce Ranked as NFL’s Most Valuable Non-QB for Betting Spreads

by · September 28, 2023

Key Takeaways:

  • Travis Kelce leads the list as the most valuable non-QB player against the spread (ATS).
  • Oddsmakers have identified three standout players: Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Justin Jefferson.
  • Factors affecting a player’s value include the type of offense, team strengths, and opposition.
  • Atlanta Falcons’ Bijan Robinson sees a rise in his value since the start of the season.
  • Several prominent QBs have been injured early in the season, highlighting the value of non-QB players.

The Significance of Non-QB Players

While the NFL is predominantly a quarterback-driven league, other position players significantly impact a team’s performance and betting spreads. This season, Patrick Mahomes topped the QB value against the spread at 7.56 points. However, players like Travis Kelce are proving that the league isn’t just about the quarterbacks.

Insights from Oddsmakers

In an exercise with six oddsmakers, the top three non-QB players against the spread emerged as Travis Kelce (1.83 points ATS), Tyreek Hill (1.75 points ATS), and Justin Jefferson (1.67 points ATS). Though the rankings varied slightly among the oddsmakers, the consensus is that these three players play a crucial role in determining the spread.

Thomas Gable of Borgata sportsbook praised Hill, especially highlighting his value when teammate Jaylen Waddle faced potential injuries. Conversely, Zachary Lucas from Twin Spires emphasized Kelce’s role in boosting the Chiefs’ offense, both as a receiver and a blocker. Adam Pullen from Caesars Sportsbook echoed similar sentiments about Kelce’s integral role in the team’s success.

Other Notable Players

Several other players also hold significant value against the spread, including:

  • Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers (1.12 points ATS)
  • Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals (1 point ATS)
  • Nick Chubb, RB, Browns (0.96 points ATS)

McCaffrey’s versatility sets him apart, making him valuable despite the often-devalued position of running backs in the league. With a consistent scoring streak, he’s solidified his position as a key player in the NFL.

In conclusion, while quarterbacks undoubtedly play a pivotal role in the NFL, non-QB players like Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are leaving an indelible mark. Their significant impact on the betting spreads is testament to their skills and contribution to their respective teams.

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