For me, there is a lot of things that could effect on final score.
Federer have presented a lot of weakness trough this tournament, losing twice a set from Traver and Schwartzman in last two matches. A lot of missed shoots, a lot of UE. This kind of game allows the clay-court players to be able to use every single opportunity. Pablo Cuevas is one of those who have the strong side of his clay tennis to upset the top players, as he did vs Nadal this season. His clay overall performance are strong, less missed baseline shoots, good in using BP chances, powerfull serve, good managed points. Only once lost a set, after that two straight wins in straight set vs Belluci and Dimitrov.
They have never faced earlier on ATP tour, so both players are preparing different tactics. Cuevas improve from match to match while Federer is passing thanskfull to his experience.
Pablo Cuevas have 3:0 in his ATP finals. This means that he keep his best until the and of some tournament, so it’s expectable to see him on highest possible motivational level.
Hopefully this fact sounds enough to be seen a 3 setter at the first ATP Istanbul final.
Pick: Over 2.5 sets.